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[Music]

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good morning everybody my name is Hector

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I'm going to be talking about the

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climates of gl513b this is a work I've

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been doing with Rory Barnes from

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University of Washington and Russell

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Dietrich and Maria damaso

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to give you an outline I'm gonna first

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give you an introduction and convince

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you why we study gl5 for Team B uh I'm

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gonna show you what are the factors that

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we consider that affect habitability

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then I'll show you the methods that we

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use and then the results follow my

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conclusion and the Future Works that are

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deemed important to continue doing

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so why study this planet in 2022 uh

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Maria damaso and his collaborators they

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discover

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gl514b and what's particular about it

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it's that it has a high eccentricity

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eccentricity it's how circular the orbit

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is and when it's a higher centricity

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that means that the circuit the orbit is

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kind of like a noble shape

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and usually when we study exoplanets we

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look for planets that are within the

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habitable zone and this planet because

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it's very oval shape it kind of Falls in

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and out of the Habit also so that makes

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it a particular object to study it also

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as you can see from the properties it

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also orbits a Android star which is one

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of which is the most abundant star in

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our galaxy and universe and with that in

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mind uh when we look at the uh the

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multiple orbits that could happen in

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this planet uh these are just

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simulations of what are 0.45

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eccentricity orb would look like uh we

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see that they all go in in and out of

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this green shaded region which is the

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habitable zone that we consider the

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habitable is one of the of the star and

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the dash line is just uh the best fit

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orbit we still see it that all of them

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go through in and out so that's what

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makes it uh very important to study for

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habitability since we've never done that

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before

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and another reason why we want to study

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gl519b in this graph I'm showing you

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here a plot of the eccentricity over the

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orbital period of the planet uh so how

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long it takes the planet to go around

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the its Hoster uh the size of the of the

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bubbles it shows how much solar

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installation or how much of radiation

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from the start is falling into into the

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planet uh on the top right corner you

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can see the bubble for what would be

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like an earth installation so how much

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uh sunlight we receive the bigger the

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bubble the more radiation the planet is

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receiving uh gray gray dots represent we

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don't have data for for the installation

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so they don't show any any uh any

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information about that but in particular

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when we look at gl514b which is in the

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middle uh in the middle of these graphs

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on the top side we see that it's almost

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unique to it and when we have an orbital

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period that long around an mdorf it

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gives us a an idea uh a better view to

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use Next Generation telescopes such as

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ground telescopes to to studying them

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and be able to directly observe them if

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the planet is too close to the star the

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planet would be really hard to to see

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with direct observation uh there's

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another planet that is really far away

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which we see it at 250 orbital periods

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on the right side but it has a lower

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eccentricity so that way that's why we

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don't care much to study that one there

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is a planet with 0.5 uh uh greater than

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0.5 x in 360 but it has a shorter

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orbital period uh than gl514b so it

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might be really hard to direct observe

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and we want a planet that we can study

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in the future

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and with that in mind the Next

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Generation telescope such as the uh such

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as the oh my God uh the extremely large

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telescope uh it it would be a telescope

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that should be able to observe uh gl513b

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this graph is just showing uh what is

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the maximum angular separation that the

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planet needs in order to be observed and

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the planet to start flux ratio uh

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meaning that the bigger planet to start

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flux ratio that means we can observe it

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better and in the Dutch line that

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represents the boundary to be observed

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uh to to the planets that could be

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observed with the elt the extremely

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large telescope and we expect that

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gl514me will fall fall within that

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boundary so we will plan to use elt to

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observe this planet

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now I hope I convinced you why study Geo

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514b so now uh I want to talk about like

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what are some factors affecting

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habitability

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um so there's many factors when we talk

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about habitability there's so many

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things that we can think of uh but I we

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focus on the ones that we've seen that

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in other papers that have shown that uh

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these are the most that affect an impact

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the habitability and these are the

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eccentricity that I mentioned is how

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oval or secular that orbit is the

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obliquity in which is that tilt of the

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rotational axis from the plane of of

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orbit from the star system the Precision

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angle is the angle of wobbling of that

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rotation axis and the partial pressure

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of CO2 which is how much CO2 is built up

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in the in the atmosphere of the planet

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and uh the biggest is atomic attack I

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don't go into much details as to why

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them but those are the papers that we

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mostly Focus uh show the uh these are

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the factors affecting habitability that

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we want to use for gl514me

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we use uh so we're called the planet

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which is an open source code that has 11

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11 physical processes that simulate

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habitability for our planet uh it

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includes uh binary systems or includes

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the the radiation for the star the or

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the services in the orbit these services

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in the rotation many others but I want

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the one part that we use from the planet

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is the one called Poise which is an

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energy balance model and what it

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essentially means this graph is a good

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explanation I did not do this graph uh

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tremended

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facilitated and what an idea in in

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essence what it is it's a balance of all

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the incoming solar radiation that comes

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to the planet and how much is that it's

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either absorbed by the planet or

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reflected back to the to the space uh

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Poise does now is a cloud free Cloud

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free energy balance model so that we

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don't take into account the the

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reflected uh sunlight by the by Claus in

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the atmosphere so that means that we

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mostly focus on in two parts of the of

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the energy balance model which is how

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much is absorbed by the by the by the

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surface of the planet and on the right

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side top side you can see that it says

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are going along with variation how much

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of that is being radiated by by the

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atmosphere itself in in longer

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wavelengths

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uh in in essence this is the the

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equation that we use uh to explain it to

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explain it in a in a easy way I would

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say that the first term is it represents

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that absorption of the heat from the

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surface uh the second term represents

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how much is being dissipated throughout

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the atmosphere so atmospheric

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circulation of the heat uh the third

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term it just shows the irradiation to

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space

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and that should all of that although all

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of that should balance to the fourth

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term which is how much of income in

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solar radiation is falling into the

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planet

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um so another thing that Poise does and

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this is good to know is that it not it's

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not only an energy balanced model but it

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also calculates uh the ice sheets or how

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much ice it's flowing around the planet

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so is the planet covering full eyes is

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the planet is just ice free meaning that

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it's all water or is the planet has a

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combination of polar caps or other types

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of ice configurations which are really

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important for habitability since Earth

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uh Earth we've seen Earths throughout

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time has how much the ice has changed in

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that surface

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um and another part of the of the V

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Planet uh that we think of is that

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outgoing language radiation there are

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many many ways there are many theories

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on how do we calculate that how much of

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that radiation is being dissipated to

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space

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um there's uh in the planet there's

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three of them uh from spigo 2009 and

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Williams and casting 1997 and Northern

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cochle in 1979.

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so spigo and and Northern Coakley those

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two are going along with radiation

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they're just as a function of

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temperature and and Williamson Casino

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includes a component of partial pressure

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of CO2 and we can see in this graph how

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much of that outgoing normal radiation

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over surface temperature it changes uh

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um Hing is a functional temperature but

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with the difference that Williams and

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casting when we change the partial

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pressure of CO2 in this case I'm having

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a partial pressure of simulating Earth's

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CO2

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abundance in the atmosphere and we see

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that it kind of it gives a more

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realistic version of how much of that

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radiation is being dissipated to to

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space so that means for our purpose of

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this of this study we use uh Williams

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and casting 1997 model to simulate how

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much radiation is being dissipated

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yeah oh and and to say the uh to say

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that this William and casting model is

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only valid from uh negative

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83.15 degrees Celsius to 86.85 degrees

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Celsius meaning that anything that goes

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if the planet gets too cold or too hot

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from those boundaries that means that uh

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our calculations of the outgoing lower

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radiation are not exactly

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um accurate so we deem them as if it's

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too cold that the planet is just

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completely as Noble and if it's too hot

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we just demon as a planet completely ice

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in terms of the of many other parameters

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so we're talking about partial pressure

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CO2 eccentricity obliquity uh and

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precision angle there's other other

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parameters that go into an energy

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balance model and an ice sheet flow

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diagram so uh here I am just showing you

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most of the other parameters some uh

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some of them are arbitrary others are

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Earth's value uh so you know as every

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model we have to make assumptions and

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these are some of the assumptions for

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example uh the ebm meaning the energy

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balance model we run it seasonally

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instead of annually so every season we

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check uh that we check that energy

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balance we run it every for four years

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uh so it's run for four years and we run

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it every 500 years to calculate it and

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uh we use the Williams and casein olr

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model which is outgoing radiation the

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initial Global temperature we use 14.85

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degrees Celsius which represents a

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pretty pre-industrial Earth's

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temperature

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we have the deposition rate of snow

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which is that's from Earth's value uh

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and then the heat capacity of the land

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of the water and the albedos they all

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come also from Earth's value

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um now the land fraction is analogous is

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00:10:41,210 --> 00:10:38,100
similar to it so uh so we use a 25 Lan

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00:10:44,030 --> 00:10:41,220
and the 75 is just water cover uh it's

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00:10:50,990 --> 00:10:47,569
to outdo our uh our our simulations we

281
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divide it into four simulations uh we

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00:10:56,210 --> 00:10:54,120
first wanted to find values of CO2 uh

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00:10:57,829 --> 00:10:56,220
eccentricity obliquity and precision

284
00:10:59,090 --> 00:10:57,839
angle that meet the affiliate protocol

285
00:11:01,490 --> 00:10:59,100
I'll explain to you what the filet

286
00:11:03,050 --> 00:11:01,500
protocol is uh the second simulation we

287
00:11:05,269 --> 00:11:03,060
studied the latitudinal temperature for

288
00:11:06,710 --> 00:11:05,279
viruses eccentricities the third one

289
00:11:08,449 --> 00:11:06,720
with data parameters sweep of

290
00:11:10,250 --> 00:11:08,459
eccentricity and obligories and

291
00:11:13,130 --> 00:11:10,260
therefore one with the parameter sweep

292
00:11:14,750 --> 00:11:13,140
of CO2 and obliquity uh all of this we

293
00:11:16,910 --> 00:11:14,760
run all the simulations for one million

294
00:11:20,329 --> 00:11:16,920
years and I did a total of 960

295
00:11:22,430 --> 00:11:20,339
simulations why 960. just because no

296
00:11:24,170 --> 00:11:22,440
specific reason

297
00:11:25,730 --> 00:11:24,180
um and all of these are just static

298
00:11:27,350 --> 00:11:25,740
simulations meaning that the obliquity

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00:11:29,269 --> 00:11:27,360
eccentricity and precision angle of the

300
00:11:31,130 --> 00:11:29,279
planet are not evolving over time so

301
00:11:33,170 --> 00:11:31,140
that means that for future work just uh

302
00:11:34,970 --> 00:11:33,180
spoiler we want to do a dynamic

303
00:11:36,710 --> 00:11:34,980
evolution of how we see this

304
00:11:38,389 --> 00:11:36,720
eccentricity oblique and precision angle

305
00:11:40,310 --> 00:11:38,399
evolve because we see that on Earth we

306
00:11:43,069 --> 00:11:40,320
see those values changes

307
00:11:44,810 --> 00:11:43,079
for the first one the the filet protocol

308
00:11:47,389 --> 00:11:44,820
is just a functionality of ice

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00:11:48,949 --> 00:11:47,399
latitudinal ABM tenacity so it's a

310
00:11:52,550 --> 00:11:48,959
protocol an intern comparison project

311
00:11:54,170 --> 00:11:52,560
from the Cuisines uh project and and

312
00:11:56,930 --> 00:11:54,180
what they want is to do an intern

313
00:11:58,910 --> 00:11:56,940
comparison on the different ebms and the

314
00:12:02,090 --> 00:11:58,920
first Benchmark case is to achieve

315
00:12:03,949 --> 00:12:02,100
Global mean surface of 288 Cummins and

316
00:12:05,750 --> 00:12:03,959
that's what we did and we look for what

317
00:12:07,610 --> 00:12:05,760
are those values and we found many

318
00:12:09,829 --> 00:12:07,620
possibilities but this one I'm showing

319
00:12:11,690 --> 00:12:09,839
you here is just the centricity of 0.45

320
00:12:13,490 --> 00:12:11,700
and obliquity of three degrees a

321
00:12:15,230 --> 00:12:13,500
Precision angle of 90 degrees and a

322
00:12:17,630 --> 00:12:15,240
partial pressure of CO2 or seven seven

323
00:12:21,050 --> 00:12:17,640
bars we noticed that 7 bar CO2 is the

324
00:12:22,670 --> 00:12:21,060
one that gives the most uh the most

325
00:12:25,850 --> 00:12:22,680
stable climates throughout the different

326
00:12:28,970 --> 00:12:25,860
bars uh uh pressure pressure of CO2 in

327
00:12:31,310 --> 00:12:28,980
here uh I'm just showing you how those

328
00:12:34,430 --> 00:12:31,320
the in the first panel is the insulation

329
00:12:36,110 --> 00:12:34,440
is being received per latitude on the

330
00:12:37,730 --> 00:12:36,120
say on the top right panel is the

331
00:12:41,030 --> 00:12:37,740
surface temperature how it varies on the

332
00:12:43,730 --> 00:12:41,040
bottom left is a is a ice melon ice mass

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00:12:45,949 --> 00:12:43,740
balance meaning that a clear color ice

334
00:12:47,870 --> 00:12:45,959
is being deposited dark color is being

335
00:12:49,550 --> 00:12:47,880
lost and on the right we have the

336
00:12:51,590 --> 00:12:49,560
outgoing language radiation and what we

337
00:12:53,329 --> 00:12:51,600
see is that all of this uh correlates so

338
00:12:54,710 --> 00:12:53,339
we have a validation of our code that is

339
00:12:56,750 --> 00:12:54,720
working as issue

340
00:12:59,090 --> 00:12:56,760
uh so that's why we wanted to do this as

341
00:13:01,069 --> 00:12:59,100
our first simulation we're just trying

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00:13:02,470 --> 00:13:01,079
to like uh do kind of like a sanity

343
00:13:05,090 --> 00:13:02,480
shake for a code

344
00:13:07,310 --> 00:13:05,100
we then did a studio latitudinal

345
00:13:09,230 --> 00:13:07,320
temperature for various eccentricities

346
00:13:12,230 --> 00:13:09,240
and in here I'm just showing remember

347
00:13:14,810 --> 00:13:12,240
that eccentricity is 0.45 but if we look

348
00:13:18,230 --> 00:13:14,820
at the error value of of their

349
00:13:20,569 --> 00:13:18,240
calculation is plus minus 0.4.15 to 0.14

350
00:13:22,430 --> 00:13:20,579
so if we want to study this to three

351
00:13:26,210 --> 00:13:22,440
sigma confidence that means we had to do

352
00:13:28,069 --> 00:13:26,220
a range of of 0.03 eccentricity to 0.9

353
00:13:30,410 --> 00:13:28,079
eccentricity so that's what I'm showing

354
00:13:32,090 --> 00:13:30,420
here how the different temperatures uh

355
00:13:33,710 --> 00:13:32,100
of the planet vary through the one

356
00:13:35,509 --> 00:13:33,720
million year calculation on the top one

357
00:13:38,810 --> 00:13:35,519
it looks weird yes it is weird and it's

358
00:13:40,850 --> 00:13:38,820
because the simulation gets too cold and

359
00:13:42,829 --> 00:13:40,860
it goes out of boundary for our

360
00:13:44,930 --> 00:13:42,839
simulation of the Williams and casting

361
00:13:47,150 --> 00:13:44,940
so that means the plan is just really

362
00:13:49,370 --> 00:13:47,160
cool and it doesn't

363
00:13:50,389 --> 00:13:49,380
um it doesn't get to to run anymore

364
00:13:53,030 --> 00:13:50,399
because it just fell out of the

365
00:13:54,470 --> 00:13:53,040
boundaries so for that one uh the planet

366
00:13:57,350 --> 00:13:54,480
falls out of boundaries has Noble State

367
00:13:58,970 --> 00:13:57,360
the second one is uh we get a global

368
00:14:01,009 --> 00:13:58,980
means surface temperature of 26 degrees

369
00:14:03,470 --> 00:14:01,019
so it's really hot meaning it's a nice

370
00:14:06,170 --> 00:14:03,480
free state and for the last one we have

371
00:14:07,190 --> 00:14:06,180
a 0.9 eccentricity but the planet gets

372
00:14:10,850 --> 00:14:07,200
too close to the start of the beginning

373
00:14:11,810 --> 00:14:10,860
so it's it's so hot that it's just for a

374
00:14:14,509 --> 00:14:11,820
lot of boundaries from the other side

375
00:14:16,370 --> 00:14:14,519
however because the planet eccentricity

376
00:14:18,230 --> 00:14:16,380
is so long that means its Winters are

377
00:14:20,449 --> 00:14:18,240
very long so when we're able to lower

378
00:14:22,129 --> 00:14:20,459
the eccentricity so that the code could

379
00:14:23,690 --> 00:14:22,139
run we see that the global mean

380
00:14:25,910 --> 00:14:23,700
temperature is about six degrees so it's

381
00:14:27,710 --> 00:14:25,920
not that warm so it's a we get as a

382
00:14:29,769 --> 00:14:27,720
noble State even though it's a global

383
00:14:32,629 --> 00:14:29,779
temperature of 6 degrees

384
00:14:33,829 --> 00:14:32,639
simulation three and I'm Amazon uh this

385
00:14:35,269 --> 00:14:33,839
is just a parameter sweep of

386
00:14:38,810 --> 00:14:35,279
eccentricities and obliquities how those

387
00:14:40,610 --> 00:14:38,820
eccentricity obliquity affects the uh

388
00:14:42,710 --> 00:14:40,620
the state of the planet we see ice

389
00:14:44,870 --> 00:14:42,720
freeze the dark blue uh snowball will be

390
00:14:46,610 --> 00:14:44,880
the gray part purple is a polar ice cup

391
00:14:47,810 --> 00:14:46,620
ice caps and the outer boundaries is the

392
00:14:50,509 --> 00:14:47,820
region whether it's too hot or too cold

393
00:14:51,530 --> 00:14:50,519
and we see that at least polar ice caps

394
00:14:53,329 --> 00:14:51,540
are formed this is important because

395
00:14:55,189 --> 00:14:53,339
Earth has ice caps so that's what we're

396
00:14:56,090 --> 00:14:55,199
trying to achieve if we can see ice caps

397
00:14:57,949 --> 00:14:56,100
in the planet

398
00:15:00,590 --> 00:14:57,959
uh so this shows up for different

399
00:15:02,509 --> 00:15:00,600
accents Regional obliquity that happens

400
00:15:03,590 --> 00:15:02,519
and we look at the global mean

401
00:15:06,350 --> 00:15:03,600
temperature for those different

402
00:15:10,009 --> 00:15:06,360
centricities and obliquities and in we

403
00:15:12,889 --> 00:15:10,019
get a 14.85 degree celsius at Atomic

404
00:15:14,329 --> 00:15:12,899
Century 0.4 2.5 regardless of the

405
00:15:15,889 --> 00:15:14,339
obliquity so we get kind of like a

406
00:15:17,990 --> 00:15:15,899
stable Clement irregardless of

407
00:15:20,449 --> 00:15:18,000
obligatory for different eccentricities

408
00:15:22,129 --> 00:15:20,459
lastly we did a primary sweep of this

409
00:15:24,110 --> 00:15:22,139
time instead of changing eccentricity we

410
00:15:26,150 --> 00:15:24,120
change the CO2 and we also see that

411
00:15:28,610 --> 00:15:26,160
polar ice caps are formed and on the

412
00:15:30,110 --> 00:15:28,620
right side we get uh we see that how

413
00:15:33,410 --> 00:15:30,120
many of those simulations are either

414
00:15:34,850 --> 00:15:33,420
polar cups uh ice free or Noble and we

415
00:15:37,069 --> 00:15:34,860
see that a lot of them are ice-free and

416
00:15:38,990 --> 00:15:37,079
snowball there's very little of polar

417
00:15:41,389 --> 00:15:39,000
caps but there is still a glimmer of

418
00:15:44,509 --> 00:15:41,399
hope because they still form so that's a

419
00:15:46,250 --> 00:15:44,519
good thing that happens and and then

420
00:15:48,470 --> 00:15:46,260
I'll leave you to the conclusions so I

421
00:15:53,030 --> 00:15:48,480
just want to cut it there but in essence

422
00:15:54,889 --> 00:15:53,040
we did find uh temperature uh conditions

423
00:15:57,710 --> 00:15:54,899
that can give a temporary climate such

424
00:15:59,689 --> 00:15:57,720
as pre-industrial Earth 7 bar CO2 would

425
00:16:02,210 --> 00:15:59,699
be suggested it's a most stable one for

426
00:16:03,769 --> 00:16:02,220
to create those polar ice caps most of

427
00:16:06,290 --> 00:16:03,779
the planet states are funny either ice

428
00:16:08,750 --> 00:16:06,300
ball or snowball and precision angle

429
00:16:09,470 --> 00:16:08,760
does not impact much the eye state of

430
00:16:11,389 --> 00:16:09,480
the planet

431
00:16:14,090 --> 00:16:11,399
and we don't need direct observations to

432
00:16:17,420 --> 00:16:14,100
assess the habitability of gl5 for Timmy

433
00:16:17,420 --> 00:16:17,430
and I'll leave you there thank you

434
00:16:21,470 --> 00:16:18,760
[Applause]

435
00:16:24,050 --> 00:16:21,480
[Music]

436
00:16:27,650 --> 00:16:24,060
character so we have time for one quick

437
00:16:31,250 --> 00:16:29,389
uh great talk

438
00:16:33,230 --> 00:16:31,260
um so it seems like you're suggesting

439
00:16:35,750 --> 00:16:33,240
that uh snowball state is a is a

440
00:16:38,470 --> 00:16:35,760
permanent State and I'm curious as to

441
00:16:40,670 --> 00:16:38,480
whether or not your simulation show any

442
00:16:43,069 --> 00:16:40,680
deviation from that

443
00:16:46,069 --> 00:16:43,079
um because you know we know that that's

444
00:16:48,290 --> 00:16:46,079
a state that has been influxing our

445
00:16:49,910 --> 00:16:48,300
planet so I just I wonder if your

446
00:16:53,210 --> 00:16:49,920
simulations can account for coming out

447
00:16:55,670 --> 00:16:53,220
of a snowball State yeah so this so at

448
00:16:57,949 --> 00:16:55,680
least the simulation what so what is

449
00:16:59,629 --> 00:16:57,959
showing is that the uh what I'm showing

450
00:17:01,610 --> 00:16:59,639
here on the on this histogram plot is

451
00:17:04,850 --> 00:17:01,620
the last state at the at the end of the

452
00:17:06,470 --> 00:17:04,860
simulation uh but uh papers have shown

453
00:17:10,730 --> 00:17:06,480
that one million year is a good enough

454
00:17:13,250 --> 00:17:10,740
time for c for uh simulations uh for

455
00:17:14,569 --> 00:17:13,260
climates to stabilize the thing is that

456
00:17:16,909 --> 00:17:14,579
because we're doing a static Evolution

457
00:17:18,169 --> 00:17:16,919
we don't expect it to change but if we

458
00:17:19,970 --> 00:17:18,179
add the dynamic part which is like

459
00:17:22,069 --> 00:17:19,980
changing obliquity and eccentricity and

460
00:17:23,870 --> 00:17:22,079
precision I go while we're evolving the

461
00:17:25,730 --> 00:17:23,880
planet then that could that could change

462
00:17:27,289 --> 00:17:25,740
uh and it could be it could have been

463
00:17:29,030 --> 00:17:27,299
like a snowball State at one point and

464
00:17:30,950 --> 00:17:29,040
then change to something else but for

465
00:17:32,750 --> 00:17:30,960
this for the static ones we're not we're

466
00:17:41,810 --> 00:17:32,760
not expecting this to change since

467
00:17:44,020 --> 00:17:43,180
[Applause]

468
00:17:46,330 --> 00:17:44,030
[Music]

469
00:17:53,990 --> 00:17:46,340
[Applause]